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GDELT and ICEWS, a short comparison
GDELT (gdelt.utdallas.edu) is a global database of events which have been coded from vast quantities of publicly available text that is produced by the world’s new media. It has created a great deal of...
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Prediction and Good Judgment: Can ICEWS Inform Forecasts?
The prediction community owes a great deal to Phil Tetlock, who has been involved in some of the largest and longest evaluations of expert forecasts to date. Tetlock is perhaps most widely known for...
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When forecasting goes wrong (maybe): Yemen
Over the past few months we have worked on regularly updating our irregular leadership change models and forecasts in order to provide monthly 6-month ahead forecasts of the probability of irregular...
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